July 4, 2026

Trade Careers vs College Degrees: What the Income Data Actually Shows

Around 2023, something shifted in the earnings data that most people haven't fully processed yet. The average electrician now earns $63,190 per year at the national median. The average new college graduate starts at $59,384. And 41.5% of those college graduates are working jobs that don't require a degree at all, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracking through early 2026. The old "degree equals financial security" story isn't dead — but it's far more complicated than most high school counselors let on.

The Side-by-Side Numbers

The most striking shift is at career entry. For the first time in recent memory, several skilled trades beat the average bachelor's degree starting salary right out of the gate. A plumber enters the workforce at $63,800 median. An HVAC technician lands at $61,010. Both figures top that $59,384 average for college grads — and the trades workers got there two to four years sooner, with no student debt.

Here's the full picture across the spectrum:

Career Path	Median Annual Pay	Training Cost	Time to Earn
Elevator Installer/Repairer	$109,910	$3,973–$16,877	4–5 yr apprenticeship
Power-Line Installer	$95,320	$3,973–$16,877	3–4 yr apprenticeship
Aircraft Mechanic	$79,870	$15,000–$20,000	18–24 months
Plumber/Pipefitter	$63,800	$3,973–$16,877	4–5 yr apprenticeship
Electrician	$63,190	$3,973–$16,877	4–5 yr apprenticeship
HVAC Technician	$61,010	$3,973–$16,877	6–24 months
Avg New College Grad	$59,384	$37,000+ debt	4 years
Engineering Grad	$70,400	$37,000+ debt	4 years
Computer Science Grad	$75,900	$37,000+ debt	4 years

A few things jump out immediately. Elevator installers earning $109,910 at the median — and $158,890 at the 90th percentile — are simply in a different earnings league than most college-track entry-level jobs. Second, that "average college grad" line conceals wildly different outcomes. A nursing graduate and a communications graduate both hold bachelor's degrees, but their income trajectories over the next decade look nothing alike.

Where the Degree Still Wins

The honest counterargument deserves real attention: a bachelor's degree, averaged across all ages and career stages, still commands higher pay. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows workers with at least a bachelor's degree had median weekly earnings of $1,754 in Q1 2025, which annualizes to roughly $91,208. High school graduates with no college earned $953 per week, or about $49,556 per year.

But that $91,208 average is doing a lot of work hiding the distribution underneath it. Computer science, engineering, nursing, and finance grads pull the number up. Liberal arts, communications, and general business grads pull it down significantly. The criminal justice major with a 67.2% underemployment rate isn't pulling in $91,000 — they're often earning barely more than someone who skipped college entirely.

The fields where a degree clearly wins:

Medicine and nursing — nursing grads have only a 9.7% underemployment rate; physicians earn $208,000+ median
Computer science — starts at $75,900 with strong ten-year trajectory
Engineering — starts at $70,400 with low underemployment
Law — requires a J.D., no comparable trades pathway
Finance and accounting — credentials are structurally degree-dependent

If you're heading into one of those fields, the math still supports the degree. But for roughly half of college students who major in something else, the calculation gets murky.

The Hidden Cost Nobody Fully Calculates

The debt-plus-opportunity-cost combination is where the real damage happens. Most people compare sticker salaries. They forget to run the full ledger.

Trade school runs $3,973 to $16,877 total. The average college student graduates with over $37,000 in student loan debt. And that's the average — millions of graduates carry significantly more, especially those who attended private schools.

But debt is only half the story. There's also four years of foregone income. An 18-year-old who starts a plumbing apprenticeship earns roughly $35,000–$45,000 during training years. By 22, they're a journeyman plumber earning $63,800, debt-free. Their college-track peer is just walking across the graduation stage.

The college grad doesn't just need to out-earn the tradesperson. They need to out-earn them by enough to cover debt payments AND offset the four-year head start. That breakeven point stretches further than most people expect.

For high-earning degrees like computer science or engineering, the math eventually works out. For a communications or marketing grad starting at $45,000–$48,000 while making $400/month in loan payments? The breakeven may never fully arrive.

The Labor Shortage Nobody Is Fixing

Here's something that doesn't get nearly enough attention: the trades are in a structural supply crisis, and that's pushing wages up in ways that won't reverse quickly.

More than 550,000 unfilled positions currently exist in construction alone. According to the Associated General Contractors, 94% of U.S. contractors are struggling to fill open roles. The pipeline looks worse: only 0.6 new workers are entering the trades for every retiree walking out. That's not a tight labor market. That's a decade-long squeeze with no obvious near-term fix.

Contractors are responding with signing bonuses of $5,000 to $15,000 to attract qualified workers. Construction spending is projected to exceed $2.24 trillion in 2025. Demand isn't softening.

Meanwhile, college-educated workers face different pressures. AI is replacing entry-level knowledge work. Corporate hiring freezes have hit tech, media, and finance. The knowledge-economy jobs that justified the four-year degree are under pressure in ways the physical trades simply aren't. Nobody is training an AI to rewire a panel or replace a heat exchanger on a commercial rooftop.

The Underemployment Problem

41.5% of recent college graduates are underemployed. That number deserves a moment.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracks this quarterly. In Q1 2026, 41.5% of recent graduates — those within a few years of finishing their degrees — were working jobs that don't require a college degree. Baristas with English degrees. Retail associates with psychology BAs. The degree hasn't delivered the promised wage premium, at least not yet.

This isn't uniform across all majors. Nursing, computer science, and chemical engineering post underemployment rates below 17%. But the aggregate 41.5% figure reflects millions of graduates whose degree hasn't translated into degree-level work.

Trades workers don't face this same mismatch. A licensed electrician is doing electrician work. A plumber is doing plumbing. The credential and the job are the same thing.

The underemployment trap matters financially too. A college grad working a non-degree job still owes their loans. They're just not earning enough to make the numbers work. That's a slow-motion financial grind that can define someone's entire twenties.

How to Actually Decide

This is a genuinely case-by-case decision. But the framework is simpler than most people make it.

If you're leaning toward college, ask:

Does your target career require this degree specifically — not just "prefer" it, but require it as an entry credential?
What is the median starting salary for graduates in that specific major from that specific school?
What will your monthly loan payment be? Can you cover it on that starting salary while still saving?
What is the underemployment rate for that major? (The New York Fed publishes this data broken out by field of study.)

If you're leaning toward trades, ask:

Which trades have strong demand in your specific region? (Geographic wage variation in the trades is larger than most people realize — a union electrician in San Francisco earns significantly more than one in rural Alabama.)
Is a union apprenticeship available? Union apprentices often earn while learning and receive health coverage from day one.
What is the long-term earnings ceiling for that specific trade? Elevator installers cap very high; welders cap lower at $53,750 median.
Do you want to eventually run your own business? Many licensed master plumbers and electrical contractors earn six figures running small shops — and that path doesn't require a business degree.

The decision gets easier once you're comparing specific careers, not abstract categories.

The 10-Year Wealth Picture

Neither path is flat. Both compound over time, but the compounding looks different.

A journeyman electrician at 24 earns $63,190. By 34, with a decade of experience, specialization in industrial automation or solar installation, and potentially a contractor's license, they might clear $85,000–$110,000. A master electrician who builds their own business can push well past that.

A computer science grad who starts at $75,900 might reach $110,000–$150,000 by year ten in a healthy tech market. A marketing grad who starts at $48,000 might plateau at $65,000–$80,000, depending on how well their sector is doing.

What raw salary comparisons miss is net wealth accumulation. The tradesperson who started earning at 20 with zero debt, and invested consistently through their twenties, often arrives at 30 in a stronger financial position than the college grad who spent that same decade paying down loans.

The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances consistently shows that debt load — not income — is the primary obstacle to early-stage wealth building. A $63,000 income with no debt compounds very differently than a $72,000 income with $37,000 in loans and ten years of interest behind it.

Bottom Line

My honest read of the data: the blanket "college is always worth it" argument no longer holds. Neither does "skip college and pick up a wrench" as universal advice. What the numbers actually show:

Trades are competitive at entry — several now exceed average college grad starting salaries, with no debt and a two-to-four-year head start on earnings
College wins in specific fields — STEM, medicine, law, and finance still justify the investment; most other majors need to be evaluated much more carefully before committing
Underemployment is a serious risk — with 41.5% of recent grads in below-credential jobs, the degree alone doesn't guarantee degree-level pay
Labor shortages are a lasting tailwind for trades — the supply pipeline is thin, wages are rising, and demand isn't slowing

The most important step, whether you're deciding for yourself or helping a teenager think it through, is to get specific. Don't compare "trades" to "college." Compare electrician to marketing degree. Plumber to history major. Elevator installer to communications grad. The aggregates hide everything that actually matters.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do electricians really earn more than college graduates?

At the median for recent graduates, yes. Electricians earn $63,190 per year nationally, while the average new college graduate (across all majors) starts at $59,384. The gap widens when you factor in that electricians carry no student debt and typically begin earning full wages two to three years before college grads finish their degrees.

What is the highest-paying trade that doesn't require a college degree?

Elevator and escalator installers and repairers lead by a wide margin, with a median annual wage of $109,910 and top earners (90th percentile) reaching $158,890. Electrical power-line installers come in second at $95,320 median. Both require multi-year apprenticeships but no four-year degree.

Isn't college still necessary for career advancement?

In some fields, yes — management roles, law, medicine, and engineering typically require degrees. But trades have their own clear advancement path: apprentice to journeyman to master, then potentially contractor or business owner. A licensed master plumber running a small crew often out-earns the middle manager with an MBA.

Are trades more vulnerable to economic downturns than office jobs?

Physical trades are among the most recession-resilient careers in the economy. A licensed electrician or plumber can find local work in almost any economic environment. Their skills can't be offshored, and the work can't be automated away in the foreseeable future. Entry-level office and knowledge-work jobs have taken harder hits from AI and corporate restructuring than the trades have.

I want to go to college but am scared of debt. What's the smartest path?

Start at a community college and complete your general education requirements at a fraction of the cost, then transfer to a public four-year university. Target majors with low underemployment rates — the New York Fed publishes this by field of study. Avoid taking on private-school debt for a major with a $45,000 starting salary. That math simply does not work out in your favor.

Can trade workers realistically hit six figures?

Many do. Elevator installers, power-line workers, master electricians, and licensed plumbers who own their own businesses routinely earn six figures. BLS data shows elevator installers at the 90th percentile earning $158,890 per year. Running your own shop as a master plumber or electrical contractor can push well beyond that, especially in high-demand metros.